Anxious people try to control uncertainty.
Because many real-life scenarios, especially important ones, contain irreducible uncertainty, that strategy can fall apart. But there are specific lessons we can learn to handle this reality.
This post is for people who:
- Respond to bad outcomes by auditing what they should’ve done differently
- Equate “it went wrong” with “I messed up”
- Over-prepare as a way to manage anxiety, and then feel betrayed if their effort doesn’t pay off
Let me tell you a story that illustrates typical thinking patterns and rebuttals.
Here’s what happened: My car engine died. Cars are not my forte, but my mechanic neighbor had a spare car he’d purchased at auction and was fixing up to sell. I’d need to wait a week for him to finish the repairs, and then I could buy it.
I rented a car for a week, and did everything I could to make the process of purchasing the new one go smoothly, but it didn’t.
Lesson 1: Many Situations Contain Irreducible Uncertainty
I tried to control as many variables as I could to ensure a good outcome. But, on the morning I was supposed to complete the purchase, my neighbor told me he’d found additional problems, and he didn’t think the car was a good buy for me.
It’s pretty typical that no matter how many variables we try to control, and how hard we try to control them, we can’t reduce uncertainty to zero. It’s inherent in the messiness of life.
Once we accept this fact, it can help us relax and feel more confident in our decisions.
Lesson 2: A Bad Outcome Doesn’t Mean You Made Bad Decisions
I’d checked with my neighbor midweek to make sure the car was still looking good. I’d called my insurance about adding the new car to my policy. I’d even made a backup car reservation for an additional week in case the repair process ran long.
The morning I had to return the rental car, I confirmed with him that the purchase was a go.
None of it guaranteed a good outcome.
When situations like this happen, we need to recognize that sound decision-making and diligent behaviors can still lead to bad outcomes. The outcome doesn’t retroactively make your decisions wrong.
Lesson 3: A Worry Fading Doesn’t Mean You Ignored a Red Flag
When this car opportunity came up, I had my usual anxious thoughts that it would probably go pear-shaped. I’d assumed, “He’s probably going to find things wrong with that very cute car. Of course that’s going to happen.”
By the morning we were supposed to finalize the sale, after his confirmation, my worries had passed. Someone applying anxiety-driven thinking might think this looks like intuition that should have been heeded, but it’s reasonable for the worry to have faded.
It wasn’t a case of, “Of course it was going to go wrong.” That was always a possibility, but no outcome was a certainty.
Lesson 4: When a Plan Falls Apart, You Can Only Choose From the Options Available at That Moment
Right before I returned my rental car, which was due back, I canceled the backup rental reservation I had for the extra week.
Since my neighbor was going to pick me up from the rental location, that phone call was when I found out the plan was off, and he didn’t think we should buy the car. This left me standing outside with two children, no car, and I couldn’t get another reservation at that location. I had to rebook from my phone at another location, and Uber over there.
At that point, I couldn’t magic back the canceled reservation. I had to make the best new decision.
Canceling the reservation when I did (only about an hour before the start time) was reasonable. Holding onto it till the absolute last minute when there was every reason to believe it wouldn’t be needed would have been overkill.
Lesson 5: Trusting Someone Else’s Assessment Is a Reasonable Strategy Even When It Doesn’t Pan Out
I had lots of thoughts along the lines of, “I should never trust anyone else’s assessment or predictions.” But who wants to live like that?
My neighbor said the car was good. That was legitimate information to act on. His honesty in pulling the plug validates that trust, since he could have sold a lemon.
Lesson 6: Preparing for Every Low-Probability Scenario Isn’t Always Wise
Another self-critical thought that rolled through my mind was that I should’ve spent the week researching alternative cars so I wasn’t back to square zero. That might’ve helped me feel more in control, but in most scenarios, it would’ve been wasted effort.
Over-the-top contingency planning for things that probably won’t happen is mostly anxiety-driven rather than wisdom-driven. The opportunity cost adds up over time.
Lesson 7: You Can Contain Emotional Fallout
I felt a bit rocked by this, but then chose not to let it derail my routines or create more stress than it had to. Once I’d picked up the new rental, I did as many of our usual Saturday activities as were still possible, so my kids and I could use that familiarity as a way to emotionally regroup.
Specific Examples (Preferably Your Own) Make Principles Stick
Many articles about uncertainty are abstract, but most of us can’t learn that way. We need granular stories, with distinct psychological moments where common thinking patterns occur, and fixes can be applied.
Use my example as a template to structure your own examples that make the antidotes the most memorable for you. The best stories to learn from are the ones that successfully convince you to believe your rebuttals.
