In our work, whether we’re teaching MBA students at the Knauss School of Business or training senior executives through The Barkacs Group, we often pose a deceptively simple question: “You’re heading into a high-stakes negotiation tomorrow. What’s your target?”
The answers are almost always inward‑facing:
- “I want a 10% raise.”
- “I just need something realistic so I don’t blow the deal.”
These responses share a hidden flaw: they’re all about the negotiator. This is the egocentric bias at work, i.e., our tendency to anchor on our own needs, costs, and fears. It’s neurologically easier to focus on our own “floor” than to imagine the other party’s “ceiling.”
But negotiation mastery requires the opposite. You have to stop looking in the mirror and start looking through a magnifying glass.
The Beggar vs. the Detective
To understand why internal targets fail, consider two mindsets.
The Beggar
The Beggar enters the negotiation focused on scarcity: rent to pay, budgets to meet, approvals to secure. They ask for what they need to survive. If the other side was willing to give far more, the Beggar never discovers it. They’ve negotiated against themselves before the conversation even begins.
The Detective
The Detective refuses to be limited by their own costs. Their mission is external: “What is the maximum this person will pay—or the minimum they will accept—before they walk away?”
The Detective knows that the size of the deal is determined not by their own needs, but by the other party’s reservation point, i.e., their “worst possible deal.”
The Conceptually Correct Target
When students or executives struggle to define a target, we give them the Barki Golden Rule:
Your target should be their reservation point.
This is the “conceptually correct” answer because of how the ZOPA (zone of possible agreement) works. If you set a target based on your own needs, you’re standing in the middle of the ZOPA and refusing to walk to the edge. You’re gifting the other party the remaining value.
If they were willing to go to $100 but you only asked for $85 because that’s what you “needed,” you just handed them $15 for free.
Finding the Invisible Limit: The S‑O‑S Triangulation
Since we aren’t mind readers, how do you estimate a target you can’t see?
You return to the S‑O‑S framework (self, other, situation)—specifically the other party assessment. You triangulate their reservation point using three coordinates:
- Their CARD (Credible Alternative). If they don’t deal with you, who else can they go to? Weak alternatives mean a deeper reservation point.
- Market and Macro Pressures. Industry norms, quotas, shortages, timing—anything that increases their need for you.
- Social Proof and History. How have they behaved in past negotiations? Do they split the difference or hold firm?
When these data points overlap, the “ghost” of their reservation point comes into view. You’re not searching for a “fair” number; you’re locating their boundary.
Anchoring on the Favorable Side
Once you’ve estimated their limit (say you believe their “worst possible deal” is $100), you face the final tactical step.
You don’t start at $100. To claim the full value, you anchor on the favorable side of their limit. If their maximum is $100, you might open at $115.
Many negotiators hesitate here, fearing they’ll offend the other party. But this is where the win‑win illusion misleads people.
If you open at $100 and refuse to move, the other party feels squeezed. But if you open at $115 and let them “negotiate you down” to $100, two things happen:
- You capture the full value.
- They feel successful. They believe they earned a $15 concession.
The process feels fair, even when the outcome is maximally favorable to you.
The Power of Strategic Empathy
Mastering the conceptually correct target is an act of strategic empathy. It requires setting aside your own fears, needs, and bottom lines to focus entirely on the reality of the person across from you.
This isn’t predatory. It’s professional. It ensures you aren’t the one gifting away value simply because you didn’t look far enough beyond yourself.
When you stop negotiating from your own floor and start detecting their ceiling, you stop reacting to the deal and start directing it.
The Barki Challenge
Think about a negotiation you have coming up (e.g., salary, contract, purchase, anything). Before deciding what you “want,” do the detective work. Use the S‑O‑S framework to estimate their “worst possible deal.” Write that number down. Then craft an opening offer on the favorable side of that limit.
Notice how much more confident you feel when your target is based on their reality, not your own anxiety.
