We often admire and reward self-confidence—especially in leadership circles and boardrooms, where a confident stance can open doors. But how often do we stop to consider whether that confidence we see in someone is backed up by skill? Are we simply mistaking a polished performance for true ability?
Why Confidence Charms—and Sometimes Misleads
In fact, people often conflate outward confidence with actual competence. Research shows that people who radiate confidence often convince us of their competence—even when the evidence is thin or non-existent. You’ve probably heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, in which people with low ability overestimate their competence. And their confidence in their own abilities can persuade others, too.
Psychologist Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic explains that people with great confidence tend to project such a convincing facade of capability that everyone is swayed—regardless of the person’s actual skill set (or lack thereof). Basically, we buy into their inflated perception of themselves. This phenomenon highlights our tendency to conflate how someone appears with what they can do, which has serious workplace and leadership consequences.
The Confidence Gap: Gender, Culture, and Careers
Bleidorn et al. conducted a large-scale study of over 985,000 people across 48 countries that revealed that men consistently show higher self-esteem than women. Interestingly, in Western countries like the U.S. and Australia, this gender gap is even wider than in developing nations. Bleidorn suggests this disparity may be because Western women are more able to pursue careers and thus compare themselves to men, rather than to only other women.
This self-esteem gender gap can have real-life repercussions: Although more women than ever are taking up leadership roles, they still remain underrepresented at the highest levels, suggesting that factors beyond capability influence decisions on who reaches the top.
Shaping Language for Encouragement
A coaching client of mine, Mike—a senior manager leading a tech firm with a 97 percent male workforce—wanted to improve the gender balance. The company openly advertises its commitment to diversity in recruitment ads, but very few (if any) women apply for senior technical roles. Mike was perplexed.
On examining their job descriptions and person specifications, I observed a long list of “essential” and “desirable” requirements, which can be very intimidating to many women. Men, being generally more confident, will often throw their hats in the ring even if they don’t meet all the criteria, trusting they can dazzle with their other attributes or learn on the job. Women, however, may hesitate to apply if they don’t tick every box, causing them to disqualify themselves.
We reworded Mike’s recruitment documents to make them less exclusive. By cutting down the “essentials” and adding encouraging language that suggests development—i.e., “you’ll grow these skills with us”—there was a surge in women applicants for Mike’s jobs.
This demonstrates how subtle changes in communication and more inclusive language can mitigate against barriers, bridging the confidence-competence divide and diversifying the talent pool.
When Under-Confidence is an Ally
What if lower confidence works in your favour? According to Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic: “If your confidence is low, rather than extremely low, you stand a better chance of succeeding than if you have high self-confidence.” He notes three advantages of moderate self-confidence:
- Welcoming criticism: “Lower self-confidence makes you pay attention to negative feedback and be self-critical.” You listen more closely to identified areas for improvement and take them on board.
- Driving preparation: Lower confidence “can motivate you to work harder and prepare more.” You channel healthy self-doubt into extra research or practice.
- Avoiding the arrogance trap: Lower confidence “reduces the chances of coming across as arrogant or being deluded.”
Confidence Essential Reads
When our confidence is moderate, rather than super-elevated, this mindset can foster genuine growth and mastery, propelling people to close the gap between where they are and where they want to be.
The Dangers of Over-Confidence in Leadership
Over-confidence doesn’t just mislead—it can also damage. Overconfident leaders who oversell their abilities risk creating cultures of blame, frustration, and low morale.
A University of Buffalo study found that having a narcissist (someone with a grandiose sense of self-importance and poor empathy) on a team is damaging—to say nothing of having a leader who displays narcissistic traits. A Gallup State of the Workforce 2025 report found that, “in 2024, the global percentage of engaged employees fell from 23 percent to 21 percent… costing the world economy an estimated $438 billion in lost productivity.” Employees often cite unsupportive or over-self-assured managers as top reasons for job dissatisfaction, and these managers likely inadvertently drive productivity down and staff turnover up.
A realistic, rather than inflated, degree of confidence is good. It “keeps us modest, attentive to negative feedback, and more coachable. It stops us from being complacent and makes us more likable,” says Chamorro-Premuzic.
Cultivating Competence to Build Confidence
As Adam Grant highlights, confidence doesn’t always come from believing in yourself today; it often comes from recalling the obstacles you have overcome along the way.
Furthermore, across fields from public health to organizational psychology, studies affirm that leaders who align their confidence with their competence foster trust, inspiration, and engagement. They invite critique, admit when they don’t have all the answers, and dedicate themselves to continuous learning.
Some strategies to employ:
- Adopt reflective practices: Consistently reflect and review. Keep a leadership journal to track successes, mistakes, and lessons learned.
- Seek structured feedback: Invite constructive criticism and use 360-degree reviews to understand both your strengths and your blind spots.
- Embrace a growth mindset: View any challenges not as threats to your self-image but simply as good opportunities to develop your learning and stretch your abilities.
- Invest in skills-building: Develop yourself in both confidence and competence. Genuine self-confidence grows from proven skills and abilities.
By incorporating these strategies and mindsets into your daily routine, you can boost your leadership confidence as you work on your competence. The fact is that finding that delicate balance between confidence and competence will shape both your own personal success and the health of the teams and organization you lead.
